The ‘Dunning-Kruger Effect’ Exploitation

When an operative identifies individuals who overestimate their abilities or knowledge, they can manipulate situations, guide conversations, or exploit vulnerabilities.

Those with inflated self-confidence are often blind to their own weaknesses, making them easier to influence or deceive.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect is a cognitive bias where people with low competence in a subject often overestimate their abilities, while those who are more skilled tend to underestimate their expertise. In short, the less someone knows, the more confident they are in their knowledge. This psychological blind spot can be leveraged to manipulate, mislead, or gain an advantage over adversaries or targets, turning their misplaced confidence into a vulnerability.

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        IDENTIFYING OVERCONFIDENCE IN TARGETS

When gathering intelligence, adversaries or individuals who overestimate their skills often reveal more than they intend. Their overconfidence can lead to careless actions, oversharing information, or making bold decisions without adequate caution or preparation. This creates opportunities for an operative to exploit their mistakes.

Example in Tradecraft

A target who thinks they’re an expert in counter-surveillance may take unnecessary risks, convinced they can easily detect or evade being watched. An operative can exploit this by gradually increasing surveillance pressure, knowing the target’s overconfidence will cause them to slip up, revealing patterns or vulnerabilities that can be used against them.

How to Exploit

– Project false confidence to coax information from the target. Ask leading questions that validate their knowledge or expertise, even if it’s wrong. This will encourage them to elaborate, often revealing weaknesses or gaps in their understanding.

– Encourage the target to overextend themselves by supporting actions or decisions they believe they can handle. Position yourself to exploit the mistakes they make as a result of their overconfidence.

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        MANIPULATING EGO AND INSECURITY